Are Democrats whistling past the Bradley effect graveyard?

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

In 1982 Tom Bradley, a competent Black man, was on his way to becoming California’s first Black Governor then he lost. He was a mainstream Democrat that didn’t scare anyone with his plans, but his race beat him.

Today Barack Obama a Black man is running for president. He has small but definite leads in most polls, but that might be where he and Bradley are different.

Looking back, Bradley’s race appears to have defeated him. By contrast Obama’s plans scare lots of people.

The media likes to cite a 3% Bradley factor they’ve picked out of the air.

They rely on people not realizing that the race will be a zero sum game. “What comes to me must come from you” explains the situation. Remember the 3% folds over on itself, so if A and B are tied at 50 but 3% of A’s voters are lying and really going to vote for B, the real effect creates a 53/47 advantage for B.

Two recent AOL items suggest a Bradley presence bigger than anyone is admitting. The first giddily reported that “70% said race was not a factor” in this election. How a 30% yes response is proof of no Bradley factor in this race is a mystery.

The second item was a poll of more than 200,000 respondents in which 17% admitted “race will be very important” in this election.

Bradley was viewed as “just another Democrat.” Obama is viewed by many as a socialist.

Even before they knew of Obama’s socialist ideology, 20% of Democrats reported they wouldn’t vote for him.

Bradley was a Black Democrat and lost. Many see Obama as a Black socialist with very alarming plans.

It might not be his race that beats him; his plans and his race might beat Barack Obama.

One thing that now seems obvious is that John McCain and Sarah Palin will not be ahead in any poll until the one that counts.

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