By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Both Dick Morris and James Carville have released polling data that points to a Mitt Romney victory in November. Although they have gone their separate ways, in the 1990s they were both important members of Bill Clinton’s successful political machine.
While Carville’s Democracy Corps has found Barack Obama leading Romney by a slim 49/47 – a two point improvement for Romney over their last poll-, the sample universe over surveys Democrats by 6 points with a D-R-I breakdown of 38/32/28.
There are very positive items here: the 38/32 Republican/Democrat Party identification split sharply contrasts with the 34.9/34 Republican to Democrat split reported by Rasmussen who also reports a 31% Independent identification.
This is important because Democracy Corps’s (DC) numbers show Romney enjoys a 15 point lead among Independents, but DC’s 28 point Independent sample is 3 points short of Rasmussen’s findings.
When Obama took the 2008 election by 7 points he won Independents by 8 points – today he is losing Independents by 15 points 53.4/38. Moreover the turnout showed a +7 Democrat 39/32 edge over Republicans. The numbers make Carville’s two point Obama lead suspect. Independents have moved 23 points away from Obama. By any standard this is far outside any margin of error.
The combined comparative “gender gap” of just 3.2 points is a drop of 10 points from the gender gap Obama enjoyed in 2008.
Earlier this week Dick Morris released the results of his poll of 500 likely voters that shows Romney leading 50/43. Using a 33/31/36 Democrat/Republican/Independent distribution, the Morris poll personally spoke its respondents. To add extra strength to the numbers, Morris spoke to 11% of Blacks and 8% Hispanics both of which square with their 2008 participation.
Other important data from this survey:
Obama’s personal favorable/unfavorable rating is 47/50; Romney’s is 48/48.
“Who would improve the economy” Romney by 49/39
“Strengthen Medicare?” Obama 44/42
“What is more important the economy or strengthening Medicare?” Economy 67/18
By 2 points Obama scares people more than Romney does.
Had Morris included his margin of error it might have added more power to these findings, but Romney’s seven point lead would seem to be beyond any standard MoE.
This data reaffirms that Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008 or doing better with any group he did win.
Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach
To reach your Congressional representative, use this link:
http://www.contactingthecongress.org/
To read more use these links:
1) http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/29/democracy-corps-poll-shows-romney-up-15-among-independents/
2)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
3) http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
To read about the Democrats close ties to Communism over the past 70 years get you copy of Coach’s new book Crooks Thugs and bigots: the lost hidden and changed history of the Democratic Party available at: http://crooksthugsandbigots.com
In this world you may have knowledge or you may have repose, but you may not have both.
What have you done today to deserve to live in America? If you want suggestions of what to do to fight for our freedom see the “What each of us can do to defeat Obama” page at the top of the CiR homepage.
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Related posts:
- Will History Repeat Itself? New Wenzel poll says yes because we’re moving in the wrong direction
- Why the New Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll is wrong and Obama is losing by more than 3 points
- Lower expected turnout, Youth vote shift toward Romney and his own tv ads hurting Obama
- Obama’s 27% support among Catholics presents a huge advantage for Romney
- New Democracy Corps survey tells Obama “Obviously, the dogs don’t like the food.”
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