By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Reading some of the polls on the presidential election can be confusing. But among the more reliable surveys two stand out as more well-grounded: Rasmussen and the Battle Ground Poll. The latest Rasmussen survey of American’s partisan identification shows Party registrations as follows: 36.8% are Republican, 34.2% are Democrats and 29% are Independents.
There are no current surveys of how many Democrats will vote for Mitt Romney or how many Republicans will vote for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the latest George Washington University Battle Ground Poll shows Romney getting 92% of the Republican vote while Obama is getting just 87% of the Democrat vote.
Running Rasmussen’s number on registrations with the Battle Ground Poll’s data we find Romney’s 92 % of Republicans’ gives him 33.856 points, and Obama’s 87% of Democrats’ gives him 29.754 points. Rasmussen says 29% of registered voters are Independents. The Battle Ground poll says Independents support Romney 56/40.
This results in 16.24 more points for Romney and 11.6 more points for Obama.
When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 – not very impressive until we consider Obama’s 41.354. There are 8.556 points of “undecided” voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show at least 80% go with the challenger. This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348 and. Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula Obama trails by 8.736 points.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means a guy doing a little research and using a $10.00 calculator produced as an aggregate score which is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.
Since Romney is nearly maxed out with Republicans at 92% (George Bush got 93% in 2004 ) and Obama is at 87% support among Democrats (down from 90% in 2008) aren’t the “undecideds” actually Democrats? In that case aren’t we playing with “house money” in that these people are SUPPOSED to be supporting Obama? With less than three weeks to go should a “winning” candidate be trying to win back members of his own Party?
Final thought: this doesn’t factor in the huge enthusiasm gap between Republicans itching to vote and Democrats dreading November 6th.
Get the truth about the polls: http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
If you haven’t started fighting for your future what are you waiting for?
For suggestions go to thehttp://www.coachisright.com/what-each-of-us-can-do-to-defeat-obama/ and http://www.coachisright.com/notes-from-my-sandwich-board-campaign-to-defeat-obama/
To read more use these links:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/gallup-obama-down-among-every-demographic-from-2008/article/2510904
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/more_on_the_inc.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
Related posts:
- New TIPP Poll shows 46/44 lead for Obama but internals say he can’t possibly be ahead
- Circular logic and thick verbiage can’t hide Romney’s solid lead in new Battleground poll
- Media insisting Obama is in good reelection shape, but Gallup and Rasmussen say otherwise
- Why the New Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll is wrong and Obama is losing by more than 3 points
- New Gallup survey shows Obama’s winning margin has been wiped out by “switchers” to the GOP
Four years ago I remember the vast majority of polls giving Obama a 2 to 4 point lead virtually throughout October. There were occasional outliers, but they were few and far between.
Romney has not done quite that well, but the trend has been in his favor for a couple of weeks now. And some of these polls have been weighted dramatically in favor of the Democrat Party.
In any event, Tuesday’s debate probably did nothing to buck that pro-Romney trend. As things stand now, only a very effective October surprise will change things around, which is why Obama is very likely to pull something in the next week or two. His problem is the necessity of changing MANY currently independent though pro-Romney minds. I don’t believe he’ll be able to do it.