By Kevin “Coach” Collins
The National Journal (NJ) has done its part to make believe Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney. Without regard for current realities they nonetheless pressed on but could not muster more than a 47/47 tie between the two. N J used 2008 as its projected turnout model as if 2010 never happened and we have all been in a state of suspended animation since November 2008. For liberals this is a comforting day dream but it has little connection to reality.
As per Rasmussen, in 2010 Republicans held a slim 1.3 point Party registration edge (not Party Identification – but actual Party registration). That election brought a historic beating for Democrats at every level from the Senate down to state assemblies. Rasmussen’s current numbers show a 4.3 point registration edge for Republicans; more than THREE TIMES larger than their 2010 edge.
Last weekend Gallup reported Republican enthusiasm is at 64 percent, 16 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm to vote. These two sets of numbers wipe away any argument for using the 2008 voter turnout model as N.J has done.
By using a 2008 turnout model N.J is saying we will see an electorate of 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent Independent voters go to the polls next month. These numbers are seriously skewed. When they are un-skewed N J’s poll actually shows Romney is in a solid lead.
Using Rasmussen’s reported actual Party registrations of 37.6% Republican 33.3% Democrat and 30% Independent voters shows N J committed a sampling skew of +2.7 Democrats and - 8.6 Republicans. This resulted in an 11.3 point skew toward Obama. If all of its gyrations and skews could only get Obama to a tie, Romney is in very good shape.
Reviewing Rasmussen’s generic Congressional ballot numbers strengthens to charge that N J’s numbers are faulty. They reveal not only are Republicans leading 45/41 but there is a 20 month record of such leads for Republicans who have led for 36 of the 40 surveys. Since January 2011 Democrats have only tied Republicans twice and been ahead by 1 point and 2 points once each. Republicans have never been below 41 %. These facts show not only is N.J wrong about the presidential race, its claim of a 45/43 generic lead for Democrats is wrong as well.
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