by Doug Book, staff writer
Skewed polling samples still abound among Barack Obama’s most faithful supporters.
CBS/NYTimes/Quinnipiac polls: show Obama up by 5 over Romney in Ohio, by 1 point in Florida and by 2 in Virginia. The samples however leave much to be desired. In Ohio, Democrats enjoy an 8 point advantage (37/29/30); in Florida 7 points, (37/30/29); and in Virginia 8 points (35/27/35). The Florida and Virginia advantages are larger than those enjoyed by Obama in 2008! Romney leads among independents at +5 in Florida, +6 in Ohio and +21 in Florida!! With these margins among independent voters and a voter turnout similar to that which favored Republicans in 2010 (tied in Florida, +1 in Ohio and +4 in Virginia) Obama will be hard pressed to carry any of the 3 states. (1)
Pew poll: October 24-28, 1495 likely voters. Pew states neither candidate has an edge among early voters, then shows that 43% have voted for Obama while 50% voted for Romney. In 2008, 53% of early votes had gone for Obama and only 34% for McCain. Pew found the national race tied at 47-47 between the candidates (among likely voters), but no Party breakdown was listed for the sample. (2)
National Journal poll: has Obama up on Romney 50-45. According to the National Journal, “voters lean toward retaining the status quo in Washington…” The poll also found that “…the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008…” They therefore use a +8 Democrat sample. (3)
Rasmussen: As Hot Air reports, the Rasmussen poll gives Romney a 50-47 lead in Colorado. Wisconsin is tied at 49. (4) Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Snapshot reveals that 41% strongly disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing while just 30% approve. (5) The national tracking poll still has Romney up 49-47 over Obama. Romney also maintains his 50-48 lead in Ohio. And Romney continues to lead in the Swing State poll by 50-45.
NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist polls: Obama leads in Iowa by 50-44. Dems enjoy a 3 point sample advantage among likely voters. Obama also leads Wisconsin 49-46. Interesting to compare these results with Rasmussen which has Obama up 49-48 in Iowa and even at 49 apiece in Wisconsin. (6)
Other stuff: Gallup says it will resume polling today after having stopped on Monday the 29th due to Sandy. According to Reuters, 90% of Europeans would vote for Obama. “By continental European standards, Obama is considered right-of-centre or even right-wing…” said a pollster to Reuters. (7) That’s too scary to even think about. The Gallup survey which shows Romney up 52-45 over Obama among early voters polled 3,300 voters! A big sample and therefore more likely to be accurate.
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