Rasmussen’s Generic ballot headline is encouraging but the internals are even better

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Rasmussen’s Generic ballot report holds some encouraging subsurface dangers for Obama’s Democrats.

Built on a simple question: “In the next Congressional election would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?”, Generic Ballot poll results can be a valuable indicator of what might happen in the next election.

On Inauguration Day Obama was very popular and Congressional Democrats enjoyed a healthy Generic ballot lead. The January numbers had Democrats favored by 42% and Republicans favored by 35%; a very big lead in this type of poll. Now that advantage is gone.

Since he took office Obama has seen his numbers drop from a +20 point advantage to today’s -8 rating on Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Index which compares the percentage of people who strongly disapprove of Obama with the percentage of people who strongly approve of him.

No blip on the screen

The latest Rasmussen Generic poll shows Republicans favored by 43% and Democrats favored by 38%. The Democrats have been behind since the end of June when Obama’s malicious intentions began to be understood and the Democrats continued to support him anyway.

Fifteen months out, it’s too early to think today’s Generic Ballot is the final word on how 2010 will go. But sitting in the middle of Rasmussen’s report is a very encouraging statistic: Independent voters prefer Republicans by 43/22!

Women who voted for Obama 56/43 and for a Democrat House 56/42 now prefer a Republican Congress 40/39.

Men who just nine month ago voted 52/46 to maintain Democrat control of Congress, now want a Republican Congress by 47/36.

It’s taken less than six months, but Obama’s personal popularity has eroded and his policies are driving likely voters away from him. This combination of factors suggests a long next Election night for Obama’s Party.

Ten percent of the middle class voters making $60,000 to $90,000 a year have turned their backs on Obama. Conservative White Reagan Democrats, who were fooled into voting for “the colored guy” by the presence of Joe Biden on his ticket, are changing their minds as well. Obama has lost 7 points with this group. Things are looking up at this point.

Comments on this or any other Collins Report essay can be sent to kcoachc “at” gmail.com

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