By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Each day seems to bring news confirming that Joe Biden is a net minus for his ticket and talk of Hillary Clinton’s riding in to save the “Democrat’s year” gets louder.
Will she? Since everything she does is always about her, should she?
In June Barack Obama had the support of just 58% of former Hillary Clinton supporters and that has not changed. Worse still, the number who will vote for John McCain has grown seven points to 28%.
The AP reports Obama’ s Democratic base support is alarmingly low at 74%.
In 2000 Al Gore got 90%, in 2004 John Kerry got 89%, and both lost. No national polls show Obama getting higher than 86% and a Pew poll shows him getting just 70% of his own voters.
The same survey reports McCain is drawing 87% of Republican support. Some recent polls have shown him at 91%, but none have shown him below 87%.
Of course these numbers could be wiped away and Obama could win on sheer numbers of rank and file Democrats. The self identification of voters as Democrats over Republicans gives him a real edge.
The pollsters admit they keep track of how to contact the same voters over and over again. This suggests the numbers can be cooked.
Can Hillary bet her future on these numbers, can she rely on them?
Then, there is the Bradley factor. If the numbers were “clean” and untainted by race, Hillary could jump back in as Joe Biden’s replacement, secure about where she would land, but nothing’s sure in this year’s numbers.
Can Clinton be sure she can magically “cure” Obama’s Bradley factor?
I think she’s ready to start campaigning for 2012 on Nov. 5th. Her theme will be “I told you so.” Who could argue against her logic?
On September 23 Barack Obama reiterated his support for Biden and keeping him on his ticket. He defended his decision to select Biden over Hillary Clinton saying, “I am a great admirer of Sen. Clinton’s [,but]. Joe Biden is also an outstanding public servant, and I am very proud of the choice that I made.”
His praise sounds very faint. There could be more to this than meets the eye, but the odds are nothing will change.