Tag Archives: Female vote

Obama has to draw an “inside straight” to win but the cards just aren’t there

By Emma Karlin, staff writer

 The unskewed polls show Mitt Romney leading by 7.8 points and for good reason.

Barack Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008; not doing better with any group he won and not closing the gap with any group he lost.  

Looking at his campaign, Barack Obama appears to need three cards for an inside straight to win reelection.

He has the two end “cards”, his Media Cheerleaders at one end and the power of incumbency at the other. Filling in the “cards” between them to gain a winning “hand” looks to be beyond Obama’s reach.    

Here are the “cards” he needs to fill in his inside straight.

 The female vote: he won this group by 13 points in 2008 and now the Battleground Poll (BP) tells us he is trailing with White Women who will make up at least 39% of the Female vote by 9 points. A nine point lead among the first 39% makes getting to a 50/50 tie a tough job and duplicating a final tally lead of 13 points almost impossible. He’s not pulling this card.

 The “Jewish” vote card was one that helped him in 2008. While only 2% of the vote, Jews who are a “canary in the coal mine” indicator gave him 78% of their vote. No Democrat has ever won the presidency while getting less than 68% of the Jewish vote. Obama is now at 59% with little chance of improving- not much chance of pulling this card.  

 The Hispanic vote card: In 2008 Obama got 67% of the Hispanic vote. BP reports Romney is getting 40% of the Hispanic vote; so this is another card he won’t pull.    

  The African American card: he got 95% of this group.  Silly 94/0 media “poll” aside there are no credible polls that showing Obama doing anything like that and for the first time ever Black ministers are telling their congregations not vote at all. He is not pulling this card.

  The young vote card: Obama got 66% of this vote in 2008, but the latest survey of Young voters shows Obama getting just 61% of this group so he’s not getting any help from this “card” either.    

 Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach

To reach your Congressional representative, use this link:

http://www.contactingthecongress.org/

To read more use these links:

1)  http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

2) http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

3)http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/09/10/poll-shows-obama-getting-lowest-jewish-support-since-jimmy-carter-vote/

4A) http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

 4) http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

5) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/irene-monroe/will-obamas-support-of-marriage-equality-keep-some-blacks-home-on-election-day_b_1895246.html

6) http://www.indystar.com/article/20120921/NEWS0502/120921007/Poll-shows-support-Obama-among-young-voters

This day in history September 27

1529: Muslim hordes under Suleiman I attacked and sieged Vienna. Since the Muslims have come to realize they can get what they want by pressuring feckless cowardly politicians so they see no need to fight.  

To read about the Democrats 70 year love affair with Communists get you copy of Coach’s new book Crooks Thugs and bigots: the lost hidden and changed history of the Democratic Party available at: http://crooksthugsandbigots.com  

 In this world you may have knowledge or you may have repose, but you may not have both. 

What have you done today to deserve to live in America? If you want suggestions of what to do to fight for our freedom see the “What each of us can do to defeat Obama” page at the top of the CiR homepage. 

Comments on this or any other coachisright.com essay can be sent by following the posting instructions below.

Jim Inhof’s list of GOP Senate winners

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

We’ve heard the pundits and “experts” who get paid for their “acceptable predictions” give us their ideas about the likely outcome of tomorrow’s elections.

Those of us who have followed this cycle know they are using poorly constructed and out of date turnout models. We have been frustrated by the lack of boldness from these people who view this process as not much more than guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar at the church picnic: The winner is the closest to the actual total without going over.

With the one bright exception of Dick Morris all of these people have opted for the “under” guess on the number of GOP pickups in the House and Senate. They would rather be wrong than seem to be “cheerleading” for the “dreaded TEA party.”

One man not afraid to predict robust gains in the Senate is Oklahoma Republican Senator Jim Inhof, who is flatly saying the GOP will pickup ten seats in the Senate and wrest control of the upper chamber of Congress.

This isn’t as wild a prediction as the Left/media/Democrat cabal would have us believe.  It is a long established fact that when the House flips the Senate does as well. Since most “sea change” years in the House show about 35 seats changing hands, the 90 + seats changing hands tomorrow will be nearly three times the necessary basis to expect the Senate will flip as well.

Inhof’s sure winner list

 “We’ve got Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin and North Dakota. West Virginia is the newest one on here and that brings us to 10.” This is an ambitious list, yet it too falls short.

Senator Inhof has left a few more off the list: Connecticut and Delaware, yes Connecticut and Delaware. Here’s why.

 The 26 point conservative to liberal enthusiasm gap Gallup has reported and the nearly even 45/42 Democrat over Republican split among women Fox News has   found, coupled with the stunning 34 point lead Republicans have among Catholics, (because Catholic bishops have urged their flocks to vote Pro life)  will bring the donkeys to their knees.     

Women and Catholics will be sizable voting blocks in each state. If these numbers drive tomorrow’s turnout (and why they shouldn’t?) we will see two new Republican women in the Senate.

It is not possible to have the number of House seats that will flip without this big flip of Senate seats.

Dark horse special: Joe DioGuardi in New York as well.

 To read more use these links:

 http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/126555-gop-senator-predicts-party-takes-control-of-senate

  http://escapetyranny.com/2010/10/26/gallup-enthusiasm-gap-now-favors-gop-for-election-by-26/

  http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/29/fox-news-poll-dissatisfied-washington-1566102765/

  http://www.lifenews.com/2010/10/29/nat-6806/

 This day in history November 1

 1765: The Stamp Act, the first direct tax on the American colonies, which eventually sparked the First American Revolution, went into effect.

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