By Kevin “Coach” Collins
First let’s say this: Obama did not win.
No matter what the Democrat controlled media says, the “tell” was on the home page of the Drudge report. Just as in the first two debates, the respondents to Matt Drudge’s simple “who won” question overwhelmingly said, first John McCain then a week later Sarah Palin. Yesterday’s Drudge results were the same as in the first two polls: McCain won 66/30.
Drudge reports 29 million daily visitors. All of these polls recorded about 500,000 votes. A fair guess says he gets about 15 million unique visitors. That is the equivalent of polling Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Mexico.
Drudge allows no double voting. He does nothing to steer his respondents either way. His poll is clean cut and simple. In a basic interactive poll, the same as Zogby and Rasmussen use, Drudge merely asks, “Who won?”
Using a reasonable assumption, we’d have to allow that people who take the time to vote in this survey are at least as likely to actually vote as the self reporting likely voters talking to Zogby and Rasmussen.
Let’s consider the differences in sample size. These pollsters have to make 9600 calls to get 500 likely voters. If they triple this effort they might reach out to 30,000 people and get 1700 likely voters. At that rate, to get 500,000 responses, one would have to make nearly 50 million calls.
Carrying this line of logic to its ultimate conclusion tells us it is very unlikely that national polls use anywhere near 300,000 calls let alone 50 million calls.
So who won?
This doesn’t automatically mean Drudge’s respondents will vote for McCain, but a strong case can be made that the total anonymity Drudge offers might very well be tapping into a reality untouched by other systems.
Since Tuesday night there has been some tightening in other polls. Maybe our good friends in the media pundit class were wrong about who won. Their views certainly don’t match this slice of reality.